Talladega 500 Race Preview

Talladega Superspeedway -- 10/23/2011

Author: GRiPEX

Published: Sunday Oct 23 2011 10:15am

Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega Superspeedway
Race Length: 500 miles, 188 laps
Estimated Pit Window: 45 laps (fuel)
Green Flag: 10/23/2011 2:19pm EST
Average # of Cautions: 6.9
Average # of caution laps: 27
Average DNF's: 13
Cars on lead lap in spring: 27
Cars on lead lap in fall (2010): 31

Tire Notes: The Camping World Truck Series and Cup teams will run the exact same tires codes this weekend at Talladega Superspeedway. They have used these same tire codes in the Sprint Cup Series since for the spring race here as well as at Daytona.

Weather: Weather for sundays race looks to be clear and sunny. There is a frost advisory but I don't believe it will affect the race track. Ambient temps during the race should be in the 68-72F degree range.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/USAL0524?begHour=11&begDay=296#hhView

Talladega Race Stats:
This years spring race practice/qual/results
http://www.nascapper.com/statpages/cup/118/aaron%60s-499-mainpreview.html

Last years fall race practice/qual/results:
Last years fall race practice/qual/results:

Drivers who led more then 5 laps in spring race (2011): Bowyer 38, Blaney 21, Kurt Busch 19, Jimmie Johnson 14, Dale JR 11, Harvick 9, Jeff Gordon 9, Matt Kenseth 8, Carl Edwards 8, Ryan Newman 6, Jeff Burton 6, Regan Smith 6

Drivers who led laps in fall race (2010): Dale JR 24, Kyle Busch 20, Bowyer 19, Montoya 18, Reutimann 14, Matt Kenseth 13, Harvick 12, Burton 11, Truex JR 9, Logano 8, Keselowski 7

Top 5 AVG finish at Talladega (all time): Logano 10.5, Harvick 12.85, Kurt Busch 13, Dale JR 13.55, Keselowski 14.3

% of Laps Led at Talladega (all time): Dale Jr 17.5%, Jeff Gordon 14.02%, Denny Hamlin 10.09, Jimmie Johnson 6.26%, Tony Stewart 6.25%

Race Rundown: This week its one of the impound races and there is only 2 practices total. Weather won't be a factor as the forecast is for mild temps. Normally wouldn't bother using the practice data but it might be worth something this time around considering the two car tandem drafts that are going on.

I still think that the most important factors for this weekend is to look at which tandems are the fastest together. Pitt stalls shouldn't matter very much, they are all big stalls and a large pit road. Of course you don't want to be dropping lug nuts or having slow stops but mistakes in the pits this weekend can be overcome by getting together with your drafting partner and charging to the front.

There will be lots of cars on the lead lap as is the case with most plate races. The Hendrick, Roush and Gibbs cars all look stout, but watch out for Allmendinger and Ambrose, as they will be teamed up and are running strong.

Top 5 Picks:

#1 Carl Edwards - All the Fords look fast and hes got a full time pusher with Biffle. Bet Carl Edwards

#2 Dale JR - Throughout practice it seemed like JR was getting pushed more by Johnson then doing pushing himself, maybe this is the race that Jimmy owes him? . Bet Dale JR

#3 Jimmie Johnson - All the Hendrick cars have stout horsepower this weekend, Johnson will be in the mix

#4 Greg Biffle - Hes going to be pushing Edwards all day, they looked good in practice and have lots of horsepower. He'll be near the front. - Bet Greg Biffle TOP 3 (+250) and TO WIN (+800)@

#5 Kyle Busch - Seems to have lots of Toyota horsepower and a dedicated pusher, Busch and LOgano will be working together.

Click Here To Bet These Outright & Top 3 Picks

Guys to watch out for in matchups :

AJ Allmendinger - Has a stout Ford motor and practiced with Ambrose all day, looks really strong as well as had positive comments in qualifying.
Marcos Ambrose - Teamed up with Allmendinger and has got a good FR9 Motor
David Reutiman - Strong praactice runs and positive comments.
Paul Menard - Will be working with Kevin Harvick, don't think this duo can contend for the win but they'll be decent.
BobbyLabonte - Will be paired up with Tony stewaart in order to draft, watch for Labonte in a weak matchup.
Kurt Busch + Brad Keselowski - These two dont seem to have a ton of speed its possible their engines are still being tuned back for reliability. Neither of them seemed that strong in practice.

Click Here To Bet On Matchups!

To the back or in backup cars:
#18 Kyle Busch - Blew a tire in fridays practice, will be using a backup, but backup seems just as good as primary

Summary:
As with any plate racing its going to be somewhat of a gamble. How ever by watching practice it became fairly evident that there are alot of drivers who have set drafting partners. All the Fords apparently have been instructed to only help Kenseth and Edwards, and no other chase contenders. Im curious to see if the Hendrick cars will try their 4 car pack thing during the middle of the race, during practice they were experimenting with 4 cars in a row for some specific reason, Lance Mcgrew seemed he wanted to keep his cards close to his chest though when interviewed about it.

All the big names will be running near the front plus a couple of surprises I'm sure. Bobby Labonte was drafting with Tony stewart almost all practice so watch for him to be catching a ride with another Hendrick powered machine. Not expecting a ton of cautions, should be a fair amount of green flag racing, and the rules that were changed regarding the radiator pop off valve and the inlets dont seem to have changed much either, the good drivers know how to hang their nose out the side to get some air into their rads, the team who wins will have this mastered.

Another small tidbit that was gathered from a Kyle Busch interview, is that apparently the Chevys are good to go to 275 degrees and the Toyotas are only good for 250, this could mean alot more time for the Chevys to be in proper formation for the best drafting. Place your picks now and I wish you good luck!

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User	Comment
grippy	testing yet again lala
HotRodMike	Do you really think Jimmy Johnson can keep this up race after race? Something has to give, his nerve or is car are the most likely.
TrackRat	Looks like Greg Biffle was just a passing fad this year. He raced a good Chase, but just could not keep up the pace till the end.
TonySfan	Tony Stewart is still my favorite pick for this but I`d like to see Jimmie take this one. He`s really earned it. :D
racefan	Go Jimmie go! Hoping he wins this one one more time!
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