Samsung Mobile 500 Qualifying Update

Texas Motor Speedway -- 04/9/2011

Author: GRiPEX

Published: Saturday Apr 9 2011 11:06am

Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway

Race Length: 500 miles, 334 laps
Estimated Pit Window: 50 laps (fuel)
Green Flag: 04/09/2011 7:45pm EST
Average # of Cautions: 7.93
Average # of caution laps: 38.73
Average DNF's: 7.6
Cars on lead lap in spring: 13
Cars on lead lap in fall: 22

Tire Notes: The Nationwide and Cup teams will run the exact same tires codes again this weekend. How ever they have never run this right side and left side combination together before at Texas. They did how ever run this combination at Homestead Miami last November. Doesn't look to be anyone with any tire troubles, havnt heard of any cording or blown right side tires.

Weather: Doesnt look like theres any chance of rain, they will be racing at night under the lights tonight, and the only weather condition the drivers need to take note of, is the wind. 22-28mph at time of writing.
http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Texas+Motor+Speedway+TX+28373:20

Texas Race Stats:
Last years spring race practice/qual/results: http://nascapper.com/statpages/cup/108/samsung-mobile-500-mainpreview.html
Last years fall race practice/qual/results:http://nascapper.com/statpages/cup/1034/lone-star-500-mainpreview.html
Drivers who led laps in spring race (2010): #24 131, #14 74, #88 46, #48 39, #16 13, #11 12, #1 10, #31 10
Drivers who led laps in fall race (2010): #16 224, #5 36, #11 31, #20 30
Top 5 AVG finish at Texas (all time): #17 7.33, #11 8.82, #48 10.07, #5 10.27, #29 12.8
% of Laps Led at Texas (all time): #16 14.13%, #99 12.66%, #18 11.21%, #14 11.03%, #24 11.03%

Race Rundown: Unfortunately none of the practices that took place where done at night. All the practices where during the heat of the day, where 80-90 degrees ambient temps were the norm. The temperature is going to drop to as low as 65 degrees later in the race. For the most part, this is going to make the good cars better and the bad cars worse. We will definatley see some long green flag runs during the start and middle of the race. The cars that can adapt to the changing track conditions will be the ones that can move forward. Since I dont think there will be a ton of cautions, and alot of the pit stops will be under green, the cars that can handle the best and not have any trouble coming and going from pit road should be the ones that come and stay at the front. Since there was no tv coverage of final practice and final practice sheets were skewed by mock qualifying runs, im going to be weighting average run speeds from the final practice + what ever quotes I can find. The Ford's in general look stout, Edwards, Ragan, Biffle & Kenseth as well as Trevor Bayne looks to have a good car, but hes starting 18th and has only run once here in a cup car last fall, he did how ever finish 17th in that race, maybe a pick for a matchup?

Drivers with an open pit stall (they aren't boxed in, they either have an open pit stall in front of them, or behind them)
#6 David Ragan
#33 Clint Bowyer
#99 Carl Edwards
#78 Regan Smith
#48 Jimmie Johnson
#17 Matt Kenseth

Top 5 Picks: (Dont look too hard at the final practice sheet, as there was a ton of guys still doing qualifying runs in that practice)

#1 Carl Edwards - Won the Nationwide race, starting from the front row tonight. Only ran 7 laps in final practice, that should tell you something, hes also got a great pit stall.
#2 Greg Biffle - Led 224 laps here last fall, starting 9th, and very good average laps speeds in happy hour.
#3 Clint Bowyer - Finished 7th here in the fall, very good average lap speeds and starting 3rd, has a good piutt stall as well.
#4 David Ragan - I was a little iffy about this one, but can't deny his weekend stats (starting on pole & very fast average laps speeds) He also finished 8th in the fall race, best pit stall.
#5 Paul Menard - First time ive got him in the top 5, but watch out. Starting 19th, one of the fastest average lap speeds in happy hour, totally confident and climbing every week. Finished 10th last fall

Guys to watch out for in matchups :

Jimmie Johnson - Looks to have a terrible car, one of the worst Hendrick cars this weekend, maybe find some value betting AGAINST him in a matchup on a clueless book
Jeff Gordon - Starting way back in the pack (32nd), finished 37th here last year in the fall, and way down the charts on average speeds, find a matchup and bet AGAINST HIM.
Paul Menard - Milk this one till the books get a clue, this guy is running well, has great equipment, and is showing huge confidence lately. (same as last week, fellas)
Kevin Harvick - Dont buy into the hype around Kevin this weekend, hes been fast, but I think hes only a mid pack contender this weekend, if you can find a weak matchup against him, HIT IT!

Here are the Happy Hour Final Practice speeds sorted by average speed (click on ave speed to sort):
http://www.nascapper.com/avgspeeds/texas2011spring.php

Alright fellas, this race isnt going to be an easy one to handicap but I feel ive got a solid strategy for this weekend. Dont get hooked into the favourites (other then carl, no value though),and watch out for them fords!! Also keep a keen eye on this Menard kid, hes gunna win one of these races at some point, hes a solid contender. Theres gunna be guys coming to the front and dropping from the front as the track cools off, keep in mind who has got a crew chief that can keep up with the changes, and a crew that wont lose them time or spots on pit road under green. Should be a good one tonight, I hope your picks make you some money, GOOD LUCK!

Comment on this article.

(255 chars max)

Username:
(No HTML)

Captcha:

User	Comment
Gripex	What do you guys think?