Goody`s Fast Pain Relief 500 Qualifying Update

Martinsville Speedway -- 04/3/2011

Author: GRiPEX

Published: Saturday Apr 2 2011 5:27pm

Goody's Fast Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway

Race Length: 263 miles, 500 laps
Estimated Pit Window: 115-125 laps (fuel) (Drivers are going to want tires long before 100+ laps)
Green Flag: 04/03/2011 1:13pm EST
Average # of Cautions: 14.89
Average # of caution laps: 93.22
Average DNF's: 6.5
Cars on lead lap in spring: 20
Cars on lead lap in fall: 15

Tire Notes: The truck race didnt lay any rubber on the track, although most will admit the tire problem isnt as bad as it was at Bristol. As of writing there is no intention to bring in another load of tires, but there will probably be a competition caution. The tires are grinding off and creating marbles in the high groove, it makes for very tricky restarts, so watch for alot of cautions.

Weather: Should be sunny and decently warm for Sunday afternoon, which may help the tire situation. There will be a slight wind about 12mph, which shouldnt affect the cars.
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USVA0470

Martinsville Race Stats:
Last years spring race practice/qual/results: http://www.nascapper.com/statpages/cup/106/goody%60s-fast-pain-relief-500-mainpreview.html
Last years fall race practice/qual/results: http://www.nascapper.com/statpages/cup/1032/tums-fast-relief-500-mainpreview.html
Drivers who led laps in spring race (2010): #11 172, #31 140, #24 92, #29 57, #5 25, #22 19
Drivers who led laps in fall race (2010): #31 134, #29 97, #88 90, #24 56, #9(ambrose) 40, #11 40, #39 32
Top 5 AVG finish at Martinsville (all time): #48 5.33, #11 6.09, #24 7.11, #14 11, #2 11, #88 11.33
% of Laps Led at Martinsville (all time): #24 20.49, #11 17.82, #48 17.3, #14 11.27, #88 9.46

Race Rundown:
Its too bad the tires are being so finicky this weekend, throws a major curveball at us. Martinsville always puts on a great race, lotsa bumping and banging. I still think its going to come down to the usual suspects but with this tire deal, dont waste your money on the favourites. I think that Jeff gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Jamie Mac, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, etc will all be good tomororw. Also, pay attention to the pit stall selections, as there is going to be alot of pit stops tomorrow, and if a driver is constantly getting hemmed in in the pits, they will be losing spots all day on pit road. Also everyone knows the favourite is the #11 car, Denny Hamlin, how ever at 3:1 its a waste of money, also, who knows if that motor is gunna stay together??!! Im leaning heavily on a 12:1 pick with Jamie Mcmurray, his teammate isnt bad either. Try and find some value this weekend and dont get sucked into the shitty odds on the faves.

Drivers with an open pit stall (they aren't boxed in, they either have an open pit stall in front of them, or behind them)
#1 Jamie Mcmurray
#4 Kasey Kahne
#39 Ryan Newman
#33 Clint Bowyer
#18 Kyle Busch
#27 Paul Menard

Top 5 Picks: (Dont look too hard at the final practice sheet, as there was a ton of guys still doing qualifying runs in that practice)

#1 Jamie Mcmurray - Very positive comments after practice & qualifying & starting from the pole. One of the best long run average speeds. (cant find him better than 12-1, I should have made this play last night at 25-1, lol)
#2 Kevin Harvick - Gained abunch of knowledge in the truck race, can always run well here, as well as great average speeds.
#3 Jimmie Johnson - I dont think it would be a proper top 5 analysis if i didnt include the 5 time champ. Always runs well here.
#4 Denny Hamlin - very happy with race car in second practice in race trim, didnt sound like he was that pleased with first practice which was mostly qual trim. (BTW 3:1 to pick the winner of a nascar race, is total robbery, dont make this pick, his odds are garbage, and who knows if the motor will stay together)
#5 Ryan Newman - Running well all weekend, good starting spot, and positive comments after practice.

Guys to watch out for in matchups:

Joey Logano - Ran real good here last two races, last year, in a back up car, but these days that doesnt matter too much.
Paul Menard - Milk this one till the books get a clue, this guy is running well, has great equipment, and is showing huge confidence lately.
Marcos Ambrose - Good practice times, good average times, starting 19th.
Mark Martin - Patient driver, starting 12th, great average speed times.

Thats all I got this weekend folks, Im heading out shortly to indulge in some cocktails and possibly some other bad habits, keep it real and bet the #1 car this weekend!! Don't be a stranger, hit me up in email or on the website if you got something on your mind! We've got 25,000 people coming to the website every month, it'd be awesome if some more people posted their picks in the free picks section, or just posted comments. Talk to ya later, and GOOD LUCK!

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