Qualifying Update

Author: GRiPEX

Published: Saturday Oct 15 2011 2:57pm

Bank of America 500 at Lowe's Motor Speedway
Race Length: 500 miles, 334 laps
Estimated Pit Window: 45 laps (fuel)
Green Flag: 10/15/2011 7:45pm EST
Average # of Cautions: 10.6
Average # of caution laps: 52
Average DNF's: 8.06
Cars on lead lap in summer: 19
Cars on lead lap in fall (2010): 21

Tire Notes: The Nationwide and Cup teams will run the exact same tires codes again this weekend. They did run the right sides at Darlington earlier in the year. Doesn't look to be anyone with any tire troubles, havnt heard of any cording or blown right side tires. The tires dont seem to be wearing that much, and watch for 2 tire and fuel only stops.

Weather: Doesnt look like theres any chance of rain, they will be racing at night under the lights tonight, and the only weather condition the drivers need to take note of, is the temp. Expecting to see temperatures in the 50-60's range, its going to be cold and the track will change from start of race to end of race. 10 mph wind.
http://www.weather.com/weather/today/Charlotte+Motor+Speedway+NC+28486:20

Charlotte Race Stats:
This years summer race practice/qual/results: http://www.jayski.com/next/2010/31cms2010.htm

Last years fall race practice/qual/results: http://www.nascapper.com/statpages/cup/1031/nascar-banking-500-only-from-bank-of-america-mainpreview.html

Drivers who led more then 1 lap in summer race (2010): #17 103, #99 61, #18 55, #16 50, #4 28, #11 24, #24 19, #9 18, as well as keselowski, ragan, burton mcmurray, stewart, allmendinger, kurt busch, dale jr.

Drivers who led laps in fall race (2010): #18 217, #1 65, #48 15, #5 9, #24 7, Allmendinger 5

Top 5 AVG finish at Charlotte (all time): #48 8.5, #20 9, #4 11.6, Labonte 13.1, #99 13.18

% of Laps Led at Charlotte (all time): #48 23.24%, #4 14.99%, #22 9.55%, #83 9.21%, #18 8.37%

Race Rundown: As usual none of the practices that took place where done at night. All the practices where during the later afternoon, where 70-80 degrees ambient temps were the norm. The temperature is going to drop to as low as 52-55 degrees later in the race. For the most part, this is going to make the good cars better and the bad cars worse. I think there is going to be a steady amount of cautions which will keep the heat on the leaders. This will allow approximately 20 cars to stay on the lead lap.

Pit stops are obviously going to be important, but I do think most stops will be under yellow. Restarts will be important too, guys who are normally good at restarts should have a small advantage here, other guys who usually have trouble getting going on fresh tires will be fighting an uphill battle because of all the restarts.

The cars that can adapt to the changing track conditions will be the ones that can move forward. As usual Ill be going over practice and qualifying quotes looking for any insight as to who really feels good about their car, also I'm going to be weighting average run speeds from the 2 final practices. The Ford's in general look stout, Edwards, Biffle & Kenseth as well as Marcos Ambrose looks to have a good car, hes starting 12th, maybe a pick for a matchup?

Drivers with an open pit stall (they aren't boxed in, they either have an open pit stall in front of them, or behind them)
#14 Tony Stewart
#17 Matt Kenseth
#99 Carl Edwards
#39 Ryan Newman
#43 Allmendinger
#16 Greg Biffle
#27 Paul Menard
#4 Kasey Kahne

Top 5 Picks:

#1 Kasey Kahne - First in final practice, 2nd in 2nd practice, 3rd in average practice speed and qualified 8th. Bet Kasey Kahne TOP 3 (+300) and TO WIN (+1000)@ http://www.nascapper.com/recommends/bodogodds.html Click This Link To Play This Pick

#2 Greg Biffle - Third in final practice, 17th in 2nd practice, 1st in average practice speeds, and qualified 5th. Bet Greg Biffle TOP 3 (+300) and TO WIN (+1200)@ http://www.nascapper.com/recommends/bodogodds.html Click This Link To Play This Pick

#3 Jimmie Johnson - 4th in final practice, 10th in second practice, 5th on avg speed, and qualified 9th. Bet Jimmie Johnson TOP 3 (+150) and TO WIN (+450)@ http://www.nascapper.com/recommends/bodogodds.html Click This Link To Play This Pick

#4 Matt Kenseth - Missed the pole by a hair, qualified 2nd. He usually runs real well when he qualifies well as he isn't know as a qualifier. Practices werent great 26th in final pratice and 24th in 2nd practice.
But there is going to be a fair amount of pit stops and his pit stall location as well as his stellar crew will not be giving up track position. - Bet Matt Kenseth TOP 3 (+250) and TO WIN (+800)@ http://www.nascapper.com/recommends/bodogodds.html Click This Link To Play This Pick

#5 Ryan Newman - 6th in final practice, 3rd in 2nd practice, 27th on average speeds, qualified 6th. Bet Ryan Newman TOP 3 (+650) and TO WIN (+2200)@ http://www.nascapper.com/recommends/bodogodds.html Click This Link To Play This Pick

Guys to watch out for in matchups :

AJ Allmendinger - Has strong weekend stats and runs well here.
Marcos Ambrose - Got one of the good fords, has run it alot including Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte's spring event, Kentucky and at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
David Reutiman - Bet David Reutimann over David Ragan MATCHUP +110 @ http://www.nascapper.com/recommends/betonline.php Click This Link To Play This Pick
Paul Menard - Just looks fast and has been running well at these kinds of tracks.

To the back or in backup cars:
#33 - Bowyer Brushed got the wall halfway through practice. He will be using a backup.
#18 Kyle Busch - Another Toyota Engine

Here are the Happy Hour Final Practice speeds sorted by average speed (click on ave speed to sort):
http://www.nascapper.com/avgspeeds/charlottefall2011.php

Summary: Hey guys, Ive been real busy lately with work and other websites but I couldn't pass up doing a run down on this chase race. I love the night races but the temp changes do throw a bit of a curveball at ya. Although the track changes due to temperature won't be as drastic as the 600 is in the summer. Theres gunna be guys coming to the front and dropping from the front as the track cools off, keep in mind who has got a crew chief that can keep up with the changes, and a crew that wont lose them time or spots on pit road. Should be a good one tonight, I hope your picks make you some money, GOOD LUCK!

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