With three races into the 2007 Nextel Cup Chase, none of the top 12 drivers are out of contention yet. Jimmie Johnson has a grip on the leader’s position currently, but a mere 6 points behind, Jeff Gordon is breathing down his neck. With the next race coming up in Talladega though, he may soon be the one to chase after, rather than Johnson. Clint Bowyer is also very close (-14 points) followed by Tony Stewart, 117 points off the leader’s pace.

Before we do any guessing as to who may com out on top in Talladega, let’s first see how the Chase rules were changed for 2007.

The first 26 races of every NASCAR season go down the traditional way. There are points awarded for drivers, the higher the position they finish the race in, the more points they get (leaders get 185, second place gets 170 and so forth and so on)

If a driver manages to lead the race for a lap he gets 5 bonus points. At the end of the race, the driver who’s led the most laps, will get an additional 5 bonus points.

This way, it is possible for a leader to win as many as 195 points on any single race. Points are awarded the same way for every race, so there are no more or less important races (except the Budweiser Shootout and the Nextel All-Star in Charlotte) The objective for every driver, in the first half of the season, is to make the top 12 because: after 26 races, the top 12 drivers qualify for the Nextel Cup Chase. These guys will have their points set to 5,000 and they’ll receive 10 additional points for each victory scored in the “regular season”.

The last 10 races of the season, are scored the same way as before. The driver who tallies the most points at the end of the Chase, wins the championship.

Talladega is a raceway with high 30+ degree banking, one that Jeff Gordon seems to be very comfortable on. The fact that the track is extremely unpredictable, means that the chance for any of the top 3 drivers getting caught up in someone else’s mess is pretty big. Some experts give Tony Stewart as the favorite for first place, I personally would be inclined towards either Jeff Gordon, or Jimmie Johnson, both of whom have had recent gains in the nascar.com power-rankings, as well as past wins in Dega.

Some even quote Dale Earnhardt Jr with a good chance to make the top 5, however things are not looking too bright for him. Even though he gained 2 spots in the power rankings since last week, he’s still only 12th. After all, he narrowly missed the Chase, so I’m not really sure if it matters at all.

Everyone seems to agree on Kyle Busch’s 5th position though. He’ll be disappointed of course, but he looks so solid in that 6th position of his in the standings, and 5 in the power rankings, (even his race no. is 5) that I must admit, that’s likely the position he’ll end up on or close to, in Talladega.

Jimmie Johnson is favored either third or second by most experts, while Clint Bowyer climbs to 3rd in the power rankings (from 6th the previous week) Does that mean something for Talladega? Could be, however, bottom line is: so far, out of the 2007 Chase drivers, only Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have tasted victory in Dega. And while Gordon and Earnhardt are the win-leaders with 5 each, Tony Stewart is the one with the most top 5 finishes (without a win in Talladega)

What does that supposed to mean handicapping wise? Given the nature of the Dega course…I’m not sure.

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