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Subway 500 Race Preview
Martinsville Speedway -- 10/21/07
Author: Becca Gladden
Five down, five to go. The Bank of America 500 was the fifth race of the Chase for the Championship in the Nextel Cup series, marking the official halfway point in NASCAR's version of the postseason playoffs. Now there are just five races left to decide the 2007 Cup champion, starting with this Sunday's Subway 500 at Martinsville.
The Charlotte race was interesting not only for who did well, but who didn't. Jeff Gordon's victory helped strengthen his position at number one in the point standings and put fear in the hearts of his competitors, as Gordon has taken two straight races on two very different tracks. Jimmie Johnson, whom many considered the presumptive winner of Lowe's until proven otherwise, was unable to overcome a series of problems, finishing 14th. And Toyota surprised many by placing three cars in the top-15, including Dave Blaney, Michael Waltrip, and rookie A.J. Allmendinger.
There are now just two drivers within a one-race point distance of catching leader Jeff Gordon. Along with 2nd-place Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer - just 10 points behind Johnson - is the only other driver within that striking distance of Gordon. Although Tony Stewart finished seventh at Lowe's, he fell back to more than 161 points behind Gordon - the maximum number of points that can be gained in a single race.
Here's an interesting statistic: In the five races since the Chase started, Clint Bowyer's average finish is 5.6. Johnson's average finish? 9.8. Don't look now, but Bowyer may be the biggest sleeper pick for the remainder of the season.
This week, the series heads to Martinsville Speedway, the Virginia track with the self-described "paperclip" shape. The distance around the oval is just over half a mile (0.526 miles to be exact), making Martinsville one of the most exciting short-track races left on the NASCAR schedule. Banking is 12 degrees in the turns with flat straight-aways.
Stock-car racing at Martinsville is as old as NASCAR itself, dating back to 1949 and a race won by Red Byron. Fast forwarding to the present day, 8 of the last 10 races at Martinsville have been won by Chevy drivers, with the other two wins one each for Ford and Dodge.
More importantly, 7 of those 8 Chevy wins were shared by just two drivers. Care to guess? Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson, with four and three wins in the last 10 Martinsville races, respectively.
Widen the date range a little more and it becomes apparent that Gordon, 4:1 in the early betting nascar odds, could be en route to his third straight Cup win. He has more victories at Martinsville than any other active driver, a total of 7 wins here, including sweeping the track in both 2003 and 2005. Johnson, also 4:1, has a three-win total, but is a more recent winner than Gordon, taking both the fall '06 and spring '07 races.
This is a Car of Tomorrow race, and along with Hendrick Motorsports, the Gibbs racers have had relative success in the COT. Tony Stewart (7:1) is the other Chevy driver with a recent win at Martinsville in April of 2006. But something is a little off with the No. 20 so far in the Chase, and Stewart's two-for-one pit road collision at Charlotte last weekend was evidence that this team is struggling to put together a championship package. Stewart has a total of two wins here.
Johnson, Gordon, and Stewart also top the average finish stats, but close on Stewart's heels is his JGR teammate Denny Hamlin, also at 7:1. Though he has just four starts at Martinsville, they've been good ones, including three top 10s and a pole. Denny finished 3rd here in the spring and 2nd last fall.
Jeff Burton (25:1) and Kurt Busch (12:1) are the only other Chase drivers to post a victory at Martinsville. Busch's win was in the fall race of 2002, but you have to go all the way back to 1997 to find Burton's, although Jeff does have 13 top 10s in 26 starts.
A driver to keep an eye on as an outside pick is Jamie McMurray, currently at 40:1. Roush-Fenway has really stepped up its Car of Tomorrow program in the second half of the season, and McMurray has respectable numbers here, with six top 10s in nine starts, three of those in the last four races. Similarly, Penske driver Ryan Newman has five top 10s in 11 starts, along with two poles, and is currently showing at 20:1.
Newman will certainly be hungry for a win after his heartbreaking loss at Lowe's, but he and the rest of the competitors need to guard against trying too hard. As they say, sometimes you have to go slow to go fast, and this weekend's COT race at Martinsville will likely be a case in point.

