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Ford 400 Race Preview
Homestead-Miami Speedway -- 11/18/07
Author: Becca Gladden
Many are looking at this weekend's final race of the 2007 NASCAR Nextel Cup season as anticlimactic, now that Jimmie Johnson has widened his points lead over teammate Jeff Gordon from 30 points a week ago to 86 points now.
There's no question that the No. 48 team appears to have everything going its way. It's pretty hard to deny what they've accomplished, what with 10 season victories, including four straight in the Chase.
But the sports world is full of unpredictable twists and turns, and with 161 points up for grabs in each race, you can't rule out a miracle for Jeff Gordon or a mishap for Jimmie Johnson that could turn the season on its ear this Sunday.
Homestead-Miami is one of those relatively flat 1.5 mile ovals that many refer to as a cookie cutter track, due to its similarity to venues with similar configurations like Texas, Charlotte and Atlanta. This will be the final Cup race ever to utilize the non-COT car - starting next year, it's all COT all the time.
Homestead is also one of the newer tracks on the NASCAR circuit with just a handful of Cup races run here - eight to be exact - since the first one back in 1999. That being the case, it's pretty easy to look at the past race winners, particularly since just two drivers account for five of the eight victories.
Tony Stewart (+1220) won the first two races at Homestead in 1999 and 2000, while Greg Biffle (+1117) has won here the past three years in a row. The winners in between were Bill Elliott in 2001, Kurt Busch in 2002, and Bobby Labonte in 2003.
Four of the last five races at Homestead were won in a Ford - three for Biffle and one for Busch - with Bobby Labonte the exception in a Chevy.
Among active drivers who've made more than one start at Homestead, Carl Edwards (+1117) and Kevin Harvick (+3118) lead in the average finish category, each with an 8.7. In three starts at Homestead, Edwards has finishes of 14th, 4th, and 8th, while Harvick has notched five top-10s in six starts - his best a 2nd-place run in 2003. Tony Stewart (+1220) and Jeff Gordon (+600) are next in the average finish category with a 10.0 for Stewart and 11.4 for Gordon. Both drivers have run all eight races at Homestead dating back to 1999. As mentioned above, Stewart won here in 1999 and 2000, but has had just two top 10s in the subsequent six years. Meanwhile, Homestead is one of the few tracks where victory has eluded Jeff Gordon. He had four straight top-10s here from 2002-2005, but finished 24th in the season closer last year.
Currently, nascar oddsmakers appear to be giving a slight edge to Gordon over Johnson (+606) who has an average finish of 14.5 in six Homestead starts. Johnson finished 3rd here in 2003 and 2nd in 2004, but had a DNF in 2005 due to a wreck. Last November, Johnson came in 9th, good enough to secure his first Cup championship. As we mentioned here a few weeks ago, Johnson is bringing his favorite intermediate-track chassis to Homestead - one which has given him several wins already this season.
You definitely can't consider Homestead without mentioning Greg Biffle, the improbable winner of the past three straight season finales. Prior to that, he ran 25th in 2002 and had a DNF in 2003. The No. 16 team will be heading to Homestead buoyed by a strong 2nd-place finish at Phoenix last weekend.
Biffle's teammate Matt Kenseth (+1000), who had a rough start to the Chase, has since rebounded nicely, putting together finishes of 5th, 4th, 2nd, and 3rd over the last four weeks. Similarly, Kenseth did not run well his first few times at Homestead, but has finished 3rd and 6th his last two races here.
Martin Truex Jr. (+800) is also looking good in early action. The DEI driver has just two starts at Homestead. He ran 32nd in 2004 (one of only two Cup races he ran that year) but was runner up to Greg Biffle in this race last fall.
For those of you Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans who are still holding out hope that he can finish the year on a positive note, statistics do not appear to be in Junior's favor. In seven starts at Homestead, he has never had a top 5 or even a top 10 finish, with his best run a 13th way back in 2000 - his rookie year. If Junior (+2370) fails to win at Homestead, it will be the first winless season of his Cup career.
Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson will spend the week dreaming about the number 18, his "magic number" for Homestead. If Johnson finishes 18th or better - which he's done in four of his last five races here - he is guaranteed the championship, no matter where Jeff Gordon finishes.
But hold all tickets, folks, because with a driver of Jeff Gordon's caliber in the mix, it's never over 'til it's over.


