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Ford 400 Qualifying Update
Homestead-Miami Speedway -- 11/18/07
Author: Becca Gladden
The only real suspense left in the quickly dwindling 2007 NASCAR Nextel Cup season seems to be whether Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 team will make a mistake.
At this point, it will take a problem - and a big one at that - for Johnson to lose the championship that currently appears to be in his pocket. And judging from the weekend race preparations thus far, the Lowe's team has no intention of letting the title get away from them.
Johnson - favored in current betting nascar odds at +380 - has done everything right and then some Friday and Saturday. He ran in the top 10 in all three practice sessions, won the pole on Friday with a 176.79 mile per hour, 30.55-second lap, and topped it off by pacing Happy Hour on Saturday with a 173.63 mile per hour, 31.10-second trip around the track.
Johnson has never won at Homestead, but it may not matter on Sunday. He has 4 top 10s in 6 Cup starts, including a 2nd-place finish in 2004 and a 3rd in 2003. Johnson needs to finish 18th or better to win the title, regardless of where the only driver who can stop him - teammate Jeff Gordon - finishes the race.
In other scenarios, Johnson can still take the Cup if he finishes 19th or better and leads one lap (almost a guarantee starting from the pole), or 21st or better if he leads the most laps.
Meanwhile Jeff Gordon (+520), isn't actually throwing in the towel, though he appeared to do so symbolically in Victory Lane at Phoenix last weekend. Gordon just missed a top 10 starting spot, qualifying 11th on Friday and he, too, ran in the top 10 in all three practice sessions, with lap times that put him 4th, 8th, and 4th on the practice charts. Gordon sounded positively chipper about his car after Happy Hour and said he thought the car would be quite good under race conditions.
Drivers in general enjoy racing at Homestead- Miami, where progressive banking offers a number of different workable grooves. Racers will be searching the track Sunday for the line with the best grip, particularly as track conditions change throughout the afternoon. Track position and handling will be key factors in this final race for NASCAR's non-COT car.
One potential area of concern is the entrance to pit road, described as one of the trickiest on the circuit. In fact, Jimmie Johnson was seen practicing his pit road entry during Happy Hour in hopes of avoiding a costly mistake on Sunday.
Rounding out the top 5 in qualifying were Ryan Newman (+1200), Kasey Kahne (+2100), Matt Kenseth (+820), and Kurt Busch (+780), placing three Dodges in the top 5 along with a Chevy and a Ford.
Kasey Kahne may have other things on his mind Sunday, however. He had a frustrating day at Phoenix last week which ended with the No. 9 car in the wall, prompting Kahne to remark, "I drove like an idiot all day." Then today, it was reported that Kahne had an alleged run-in with a security guard at the track Friday and was handcuffed for several minutes before being released. The incident is being investigated by police detectives.
Recent Homestead-Miami winner Greg Biffle (+1250), who has won the last three season-ending races in a row, qualified 37th and ran 28th in Happy Hour. The farthest back anyone has won from at Homestead was Biffle last year, who won from a 22nd- place start. Biffle is not likely to four-peat at Homestead this year.
Tony Stewart (+850) is a two-time winner at Homestead, but that was in 1999 and 2000 when the track was flat and the progressive banking had not yet been installed. Stewart, who qualified 14th and ran 8th in Happy Hour, should have a strong run tomorrow, his last race in a Chevy before switching to Toyota next season.
The only drivers in the top 10 in all three practice sessions were Ryan Newman, Jeff Burton (+1600), Gordon and Johnson. Burton qualified 9th and won Saturday's Busch race. There is one rookie starting in the top 10, David Ragan, who qualified 7th for his second-highest starting spot this year.
The Junior Nation is still holding out hope for their driver to avoid going winless this season. Earnhardt Jr. (+1600) qualified decently at 13th and ran 9th in Friday morning's practice session. He dropped to 19th in second practice, but rebounded to 12th in Happy Hour, though he didn't sound particularly confident in his car on Saturday.
Two drivers experiencing difficulties in final practice were Clint Bowyer (+1600) and Earnhardt's teammate for one more race, Martin Truex Jr. (+1200). Bowyer got loose and took a long spin through the grass but avoided contact with the wall. Truex on the other hand, trying out the high line, got a little too high and brushed the wall for a few seconds.
Drivers who failed to qualify were A.J. Allmendinger, John Andretti, Joe Nemechek, Michael Waltrip, Todd Bodine, and Burney Lamar. Kyle Petty, Robby Gordon and Tony Raines made the field on owner's points, while Bill Elliott will start 43rd with a past-champion's provisional.
Also starting in the top 10 are Mark Martin (+2100), 6th, Kevin Harvick (+2100), 8th, and Carl Edwards (+820), 10th.
And in case you're wondering, the countdown to Daytona has already begun. It's just 92 days and counting.


