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Bank of America 500 Race Preview
Lowe's Motor Speedway -- 10/13/07
Author: Becca Gladden
The first COT race at Talladega has come and gone, and it left a lot of fans a bit bewildered. The majority of the laps saw single-file racing, which both fans and drivers found boring. It wasn't until the last 20 laps or so that things got racey.
Winner Jeff Gordon pulled off a perfect trifecta, taking the checkered flag, moving into the points lead, and becoming the all-time career restrictor plate winner with his Talladega victory. It was Gordon's 80th career Cup win and his masterful move to get past teammate Jimmie Johnson will no doubt make the 2007 highlight reel.
After Talladega, there are only three drivers still within a one-race point distance of catching leader Jeff Gordon. Bearing in mind that 161 points is the maximum amount that can be gained in a single race, the drivers within closest striking distance are Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, and Tony Stewart - though at 154 points back, Stewart's got a big hole to dig out of. The remaining Chase drivers have an even bigger deficit, needing at least two races to bridge the gap. Jeff Burton, currently 12th in points and 336 back, is the only driver technically three races behind Gordon in the standings.
Of course, those catch-up stats assume not only that the trailing drivers will lead laps and win races, but that the frontrunners will do the opposite. And with the way Gordon, Johnson, and yes, Bowyer have been doing in the Chase lately, there are no signs of that happening any time soon.
This is especially true as we head to Lowe's Motor Speedway, where we'll be enjoying a nice change of pace - the Saturday night event is the only night race in the Chase.
In addition, it's back to the non-COT car this week for a 500-miler on a track that most teams enjoy, if for no other reason than the proximity of Charlotte, North Carolina, to their homes and families.
Lowe's Motor Speedway and its always colorful, sometimes controversial, owner Bruton Smith have been in the headlines lately, as Smith threatened to shut down the speedway in retaliation for a local city council's decision to deny him the right to build a new drag racing strip in the area. Smith insists that he is serious about his threat, but whatever future moves he makes will not affect this weekend's event.
Saturday night's race is the 30th of the season overall and the fifth of 10 Chase for the Championship races. The series has raced at Charlotte since 1960, last visiting here in May for the 2007 Coca-Cola 600, where Casey Mears (25:1) scored his first Nextel Cup victory.
But it is Mears' Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson (4:1) who claimed this track as his "house" a few years ago, and understandably so. Johnson won four straight races here in 2004 and 2005, and his overall numbers can't be touched by any other active driver: Five wins, 11 top 10s, two poles, and an average finish of 6.2 in 12 starts. Johnson is coming off a nice second-place finish at Talladega, though he was disappointed in himself, feeling that he let the win get away from him when teammate Gordon got around him. The 48 team is bringing chassis 363 to Charlotte, a car that won at Las Vegas in March and California in September, as well as taking the All-Star Challenge at this track in 2006.
Kasey Kahne (40:1) also has a sweep at Lowe's, winning both races here last year. But 2006 was a very different season for the No. 9 team with a series-leading six wins. Kahne has yet to win a single race this season and has just one top-5 finish, a 2nd at Bristol in August.
Four other Chase drivers have won at Lowe's, including Jeff Gordon (6: 1) with four wins in 29 starts, Jeff Burton (25: 1) with two wins in 27 starts, Matt Kenseth (8: 1) with one win in 16 starts, and Tony Stewart (7: 1) with one win in 17 starts. Burton's win here was in 2001, Kenseth's in 2000, and Stewart's in 2003. And though Gordon does have multiple wins at Lowe's, all four of his victories were in the 1990s; his last five runs here have been surprisingly poor, including four that involved crashes, and the result is an average finish of 33.8 for Gordon at Lowe's since 2005.
Regarding the aforementioned Clint Bowyer, he's currently showing at 18:1, but with only three starts here, it's hard to predict what this weekend will bring for the No. 07 team. His three previous finishes here were mediocre at best with just one top-20 run.
Though Roush-Fenway driver Carl Edwards has only five races at Lowe's, he has always performed well here, scoring two 3rd-place finishes and an average finish of 7.8, with his lowest a still respectable 15th. Edwards is currently showing at 12:1, as are Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin. All three are in the Chase, but Hamlin is the only one with decent numbers, notching three top 10s in four starts.
A few drivers with surprisingly long nascar odds early on are Mark Martin at 30:1 and Jamie McMurray at 60:1. Both are previous winners here - McMurray winning the 500-miler in October of 2002 and Martin with four wins, most recently the Coke 600 that same year. Both drivers have switched teams and manufacturers since then, but they clearly have the ability to get around the track.
Among manufacturers, Chevrolets have won 7 of the last 10 races at Lowe's s (five of them by Jimmie Johnson), with three wins for Dodge (two by Kasey Kahne). Ford's last win at Lowe's was Mark Martin's in 2002.
Along with Johnson, another Chase driver frustrated with the outcome of Sunday's Talladega race was Tony Stewart (7:1), who finished eighth after pushing Gordon to victory. Stewart has a win and 10 top 10s in 17 races, finishing 6th here in the spring and 13th last fall. Stewart will be walking a fine line between trying to make up points on Gordon and Johnson, while not being so aggressive that he hurts his chances to move up in the standings. Kasey Kahne won this race last fall with an average speed over 500 laps of 191 miles per hour, so whatever happens this weekend, look for fast and furious action under the bright lights in Charlotte.


