Lenox Industrial Tools 301 Qualifying Update

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Loudon -- 06/28/2009

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Sunday Jun 28 2009 1:17am

First, the bad news: the weather forecast is for a 50% chance of rain tomorrow in Loudon.

The good news? I’m not sure there is any, except perhaps that this is a relatively short race by NASCAR standards – just 318 miles – with only half needing to be completed to make the race official.

Last year’s Loudon race was shortened to 300 miles by rain, producing a rather strange top 10 as the weather moved in right in the middle of a pit cycle.
Included among the top-10 finishers were Michael Waltrip, J.J. Yeley, Elliott Sadler, Reed Sorenson, and Casey Mears, along with race winner Kurt Busch.

There is good news for Tony Stewart fans, however. Since qualifying was rained out Friday, Stewart, the current points leader, will start on the pole Sunday. More importantly, although he crashed in practice Friday and will be running a backup car, Stewart keeps his P1 starting spot since the incident occurred before qualifying (even though it was rained out).

Stewart has as good a chance as anyone to win Sunday. He’s won twice at New Hampshire previously, in 2000 and 2005 (both were July races), and he also has two second-place finishes. Along with leading the points, Stewart’s average finish over the past four weeks in Cup is an amazing 3.0.

Actually, any one of the past five or six June/July Loudon winners has a pretty good shot at winning again on Sunday, including Kurt Busch and Stewart along with Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson. Kyle won the Nationwide race Saturday and Johnson has four straight top 10s here, including a second-place finish last September after leading the most laps.

Phoenix is a track often compared to Loudon, so it’s worth noting that Mark Martin won at PIR back in April, with Stewart finishing second followed by Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, and Denny Hamlin.

Looking at practice speeds Saturday, Reed Sorenson paced the first practice, while Martin Truex Jr. led Happy Hour. Both drivers were in the top 10 in both practices, as was David Reutimann, Jimmie Johnson, and Juan Pablo Montoya. Of that group of drivers, Johnson is the only one starting in the top 10.

Overall, starting position does not seem to be as important at Loudon as it is at many other tracks, statistically speaking. Just over half of the 28 Cup races here (15) have been won from a top-10 starting spot, which means nearly half (13) have been won from outside the top 10 as well. Jeff Burton won here from 38th-place in 1999.

The first five rows will line up as follows (by owner’s points since qualifying was rained out):

Row 1 – Tony Stewart / Jeff Gordon

Row 2 – Jimmie Johnson / Kurt Busch

Row 3 – Carl Edwards / Ryan Newman

Row 4 – Denny Hamlin / Greg Biffle

Row 5 – Kyle Busch / Matt Kenseth

Odds-makers' Favorites:

Jimmie Johnson +450
Tony Stewart +550
Kurt Busch +900

Mid-pack Maybes:

Greg Biffle +1100
Mark Martin +1400
Kevin Harvick +1800

Long-shots to Watch:

Ryan Newman +2200
Jeff Burton +3500
Matt Kenseth +3800

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