Pennsylvania 500 Qualifying Update

Pocono Raceway -- 08/03/08

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Sunday Aug 3 2008 12:41am

I mentioned last week the unusual schedule at Indy which called for a total of four pre-race practice sessions, rather than the more conventional two or three practices.

This week at Pocono there were three practices planned - one Friday before qualifying and two on Saturday.

But rain has been the thorn in NASCAR's side Saturday, affecting not only the Nationwide race in Montreal, but causing the cancellation of both Cup series practices in Pocono.

That means we only have the stats from one practice and qualifying to look over heading into Sunday's race. It also means additional challenges for the teams, who typically focus more on qualifying set-ups in their Friday practice and race trim in the Saturday practices, which they never got to do.

Fortunately, the Sunday forecast for Pocono calls for just a slight chance of showers.

With the above caveats in mind, what can be gleaned from Friday's single practice and qualifyingΔ The first thing that jumped out at me was a side-by-side comparison of this week's top 10 in qualifying with last week's:

Pocono Top 10 (qualifying):

Row 1: Jimmie Johnson - Mark Martin
Row 2: David Gilliland - Jeff Gordon
Row 3: Matt Kenseth - Ryan Newman
Row 4: Kasey Kahne - Brian Vickers
Row 5: Greg Biffle - Kurt Busch

Indy Top 10 (qualifying):

Row 1: Jimmie Johnson - Mark Martin
Row 2: Ryan Newman - Kasey Kahne
Row 3: Jeff Gordon - Elliott Sadler
Row 4: Kurt Busch - Jamie McMurray
Row 5: Carl Edwards - Matt Kenseth

Notice it's the exact same front row this week and seven of ten of the same drivers on the starting grid. Six of the top 10 starters at Indy went on to finish in the top 10 there, including Johnson, who went pole to pole. Kasey Kahne (+525) won at Pocono from the pole in June.

Johnson (+350) earned the pole with a 168.215 mile per hour, 53.503 lap.

The biggest surprise in qualifying was David Gilliland, who will start third in the No. 38 Yates Racing Ford. It is by far his best starting spot this season, with only one previous start higher than 20th. Chad Chaffin, slowest in practice, was the only DNQ.

Other notable starting spots: Dale Earnhardt Jr. - 12th; Denny Hamlin - 14th; Carl Edwards - 15th; Tony Stewart - 20th; Kevin Harvick - 21st; Kyle Busch - 27th; Clint Bowyer - 30th; and Jeff Burton - 39th.

"It’s disappointing," Kyle Busch (+900) said after his mediocre qualifying run. "Qualifying good here is important so you can be up front with clean air, especially with these cars. It’s all about track position because it’s so hard to pass. We felt like our car was pretty good in race trim. We’ll just have to see."

Statistically, a top-10 starting spot is favored for victory at Pocono, with 72% of the winners coming from inside the top 10, 61% from the first two rows, and 21% from the pole itself over the course of 61 races. Just 28% of winners have started outside the top 10, though Carl Edwards (+850) won from a 29th-place start in June of 2005.

Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin (+1800) also ran 1-2 in Friday's practice, with Johnson turning a 166.784 mph, 53.962 lap. He was followed by Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon (+800), and Martin Truex Jr. (+3500). Rounding out the top 10 in practice were Matt Kenseth (+1350), Denny Hamlin (+700), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1550), Casey Mears, and Brian Vickers (+1800).