Ford 400 Qualifying Update

Homestead-Miami Speedway -- 11/16/08

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Saturday Nov 15 2008 10:48pm

First, the bad news for Jimmie Johnson: he qualified 30th at Homestead, his lowest starting spot in the Chase and one of his lowest all year. Now, the good news: even if he doesn't advance his position one spot for the entire race, he'll still win the championship.

That's because Johnson only needs a finish of 36th or better Sunday to secure his third straight Cup championship. Barring the totally unpredictable, that's pretty much a done deal.

And whatever problem was plaguing the 48 team on Friday seemed to be fixed by Saturday. Johnson led the first practice on Saturday and ran 4th in Happy Hour.

Meanwhile Carl Edwards, Johnson's only rival for the championship, qualified 4th and ran 23rd in Happy Hour.

So far this weekend we've seen two very close championships decided by a small margin, but in both cases, the driver leading the points heading into the race held on to win the title - Johnny Benson in the truck series and Clint Bowyer in the Nationwide series.

Every Chase race this year has been won by a Chase contender - three by Jimmie Johnson, two each by Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, one by Tony Stewart and one by Jeff Burton. It seems likely that one of the 12 Chase drivers will win again Sunday.

Although Toyota has never won at Homestead in either the Cup or Nationwide series, three Toyotas qualified in the top 10 for Sunday's race, including polesitter David Reutimann, outside polesitter Scott Speed, and Kyle Busch in 8th. It is the first Cup pole for Reutimann and the first for Michael Waltrip Racing.

Perhaps even more notable are the four Roush-Fenway drivers who qualified in the top 10, since this has been an outstanding track for Roush. Matt Kenseth qualified 3rd, Carl Edwards, 4th, David Ragan (+2300), 6th, and Jamie McMurray (+1800), 7th. The other Roushketeer, Greg Biffle, qualified 23rd, though he was 5th-fastest in Happy Hour.

Also qualifying in the top 10 were Kevin Harvick, 5th, Reed Sorenson, 9th, and Martin Truex Jr. (+3500), 10th.

The 12 Chase drivers will line up as follows:

3rd - Matt Kenseth (+700)
4th - Carl Edwards (+200)
5th - Kevin Harvick (+1800)
8th - Kyle Busch (+1000)
13th - Tony Stewart (+1300)
17th - Jeff Burton (+3500)
22nd - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1600)
23rd - Greg Biffle (+650)
25th - Denny Hamlin (+900)
27th - Clint Bowyer (+3000)
30th - Jimmie Johnson (+750)
36th - Jeff Gordon (+1500)

Six of eight races run at Homestead have been won from a top-10 starting spot. The worst starting position for a race winner was 13th, by Tony Stewart in 2000.

The only drivers to run in the top 10 in both Saturday practice sessions were Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin and Scott Speed.

Juan Pablo Montoya, who had the fastest lap in Friday's practice, had a run-in with the wall Saturday morning but the damage appears to be reparable.

Failing to qualify were Ken Schrader, Max Papis, and Sam Hornish Jr.