Dickies 500 Race Review

Texas Motor Speedway -- 11/02/08

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Sunday Nov 2 2008 11:27pm

Read all of Becca Gladden's articles here


I felt like I stuck my neck out a wee bit yesterday in my qualifying update, practically guaranteeing that either Jimmie Johnson or Carl Edwards would win Sunday at Texas.

Of course, statistics were in my favor, but as everyone keeps saying regarding the Chase these days, `anything can happen.`

Johnson ended up having a sub-par day for the 48 team, finishing a lap down in 15th place. It was his lowest finish in the Chase (in fact, in the last 10 races, including the two leading up to the Chase), and his only Chase finish outside the top 10.

So I guess I have to thank Carl Edwards for making me look good, turning an improbable fuel gamble into his eighth win of the season and closing the points gap on Johnson with just two races to go.

But before I get any further, here's a little trivia you'll want to tuck away in your bettor's notes for next year: The drivers who won at Texas this weekend in all three series also won here in the spring - Ron Hornaday in the truck race, Kyle Busch in the Nationwide race, and Edwards in the Cup race.

Edwards had the dominant car throughout the race, leading five times for 212 of 334 laps. He lost the lead after taking four tires on a late race pit stop, but his team chose to stay out rather than make a final stop for fuel. The strategy put Edwards back in the lead when others pitted and he crossed the finish line over eight seconds ahead of Jeff Gordon, who also gambled on fuel mileage.

Overall, it was a good day for the Roush-Fenway organization, with all five of their drivers finishing 11th or higher. Jamie McMurray finished 3rd after leading the second-highest number of laps, 56. Greg Biffle came in 5th, Matt Kenseth, 9th, and David Ragan, 11th.

Clint Bowyer and Jeff Gordon were the only other double-digit lap leaders - Bowyer with 36 and Gordon with 15. Both finished in the top 5 - 2nd and 4th, respectively.

Although Jimmie Johnson got a lap down early due to a poor handling car, he did rally from as far back as 29th to his eventual 15th-place finish. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was actually the lowest-finishing Hendrick driver when a fuel gamble failed for the 88 team and he ran out of gas on lap 328 and then couldn't fire the car on pit road. Earnhardt finished 20th, while Casey Mears was 14th and Brad Keselowski, making his first Cup start in a fifth HMS car, was 19th.

Other drivers finishing in the top 10 were Kyle Busch, 6th (the highest finishing Toyota), Kevin Harvick, 7th, Martin Truex Jr., 8th, and David Reutimann, 10th.

The Dodge teams continue to struggle as rookie Sam Hornish Jr.'s 23rd was the best finish for that manufacturer.

All 12 of the Chase contenders finished in the top 20, though everyone from Jeff Burton in 13th on back was at least a lap down. Burton started the race in 38th and finished 13th, while Tony Stewart in a back-up car started at the rear of the field and finished 16th.

It was a relatively tame race overall with just five cautions, though Yates Racing's David Gilliland was parked by NASCAR after intentionally punting Juan Pablo Montoya. The two finished 42nd and 43rd.

In terms of points, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are both back within a one-race striking distance (161 points) of Johnson - Edwards now 106 back and Biffle 143. By winning the race and leading the most laps, Edwards (combined with Johnson's 15th-place finish), took 77 points off the lead Johnson had before Texas.

With regard to clinch scenarios, here is the most up-to-date information from NASCAR:

`Johnson needs to leave Phoenix with a 196-point lead over second-place to officially clinch his third consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. In other words, Johnson must beat Edwards by 90 points and third-place Greg Biffle by 52 at Phoenix to clinch (Johnson needs to finish 195 points ahead of Biffle to clinch because he owns the tie-breaker). Jeff Burton, 212 points back in fourth place, can also spoil Johnson’s clinch hopes by getting within that 195-point “magic number.” If Johnson leaves Phoenix with a 162-point lead, he would need only to start the season-finale at Homestead to clinch a championship. Under this scenario, Johnson has to beat Edwards by 56 and Biffle by 18. If Johnson finishes seventh or better in the next two races, he will clinch the title, no matter what any other driver does.`

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littlebitI didn`t realize that it was still possible for anyone to take the title from Johnson, let alone two that have that chance. This could give us a surprise upset and will be very interesting to watch.
RacechickHe he. I had my fingers crossed the whole race that someone would do something spectacular to de-throne Jimmie - especially after his self-aggrandizing announcement that he`d already practically won.
TonySfanWell there goes my hopes for Tony Stewart this year, but I still have my hopes up that Carl Edwards can do it again to pip JJ at the post right at the final hour ;)
racegirlI wasn`t aware there was any question of Johnson taking the cup either. Everybody talked like it was a done deal, this will certainly make the last race a little more interesting now!
racefanDoes Edwards really stand that good a chance of grabbing this away from Jimmie Johnson right here at the last minute? I can`t wait to see!!
Vroom!However big the gamble was in stating it would be one of them, it paid off. Jimmie Johnson had a very poor race unfortunately, but its made this all so much more exciting.
CountDownI still think that Biffle is too far away but with the worse performance of Jimmie Johnson over the last two races, compared to the awesome performance of Edwards, I think that Edwards has a huge change. I can`t wait for next week.
goJJgoI was very disappointed with JJ`s performance this race. Carl Edwards, on the other hand, ran a tremendous race. His season is ending much better than it was in the beginning.
TrackRatI thought my betting season was over but with the amazing comeback of Carl Edwards I think I just might place a bet on Jimmy Johnson to win. The odds are probably a little better now that people think Carl has a chance to win.