Dickies 500 Qualifying Update

Texas Motor Speedway -- 11/02/08

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Saturday Nov 1 2008 6:48pm

If someone other than Jimmie Johnson or Carl Edwards wins at Texas Sunday, I'll be surprised. All signs point to one of them winning once again this weekend.

Johnson won this race last fall; Carl Edwards won here race in the spring. Johnson is first in the point standings; Edwards is second. Both drivers were in the top 10 in the first two practice sessions; Edwards led Happy Hour, while Johnson ran 12th. Johnson starts 7th on the starting grid; Edwards, 16th. Johnson has won six races this season, including two in the Chase; Edwards has seven wins with one in the Chase -- which happened to be Atlanta last week, where Johnson finished 2nd. Johnson has the best average finish at Texas among active drivers, while Edwards is one of only two two-time winners here (Jeff Burton is the other). In terms of betting odds, Johnson and Edwards are clearly favored with oddsmakers: Edwards at a very low +265, Johnson at +485. And remarkably, either Johnson or Edwards has won 9 of the last 14 races.

Other potential Texas winners include most of the likely contenders this season, particularly those from the Roush and Hendrick camps. Jeff Gordon (+905), for example, led the Friday practice session and qualified on the pole with a 188.47 mile per hour lap, almost half a second faster than outside pole winner Martin Truex Jr. (+2850), though Gordon was only 33rd on the speed chart in Happy Hour and has never won at TMS. Greg Biffle (+945) led the early practice Saturday, ran 19th in Happy Hour and also qualified 19th, while Matt Kenseth (+715) ran in the top 10 in both Saturday practices and qualified 6th.

Then there's Kyle Busch (+725), who dominated and won the Nationwide race Saturday and ran 2nd in Happy Hour, though he qualified 29th. Busch's teammate Tony Stewart (+1550), who qualified 8th, will start from the rear of the field after experiencing an explosive tire blowout in Saturday's early practice. Robby Gordon also had a practice wreck and is going to a backup, while Jamie McMurray (+3850) and Travis Kvapil both had contact with the wall, but should remain in their primaries.

Joining Jeff Gordon and Martin Truex Jr. on the starting grid are Clint Bowyer (+2550) and Jamie McMurray in row 2 and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1250) and Matt Kenseth in row 3. One longshot driver to watch is Kevin Harvick (+3450), who ran in the top 10 in all three practices and qualified 23rd.

Speaking of qualifying, it's easy to see why Jimmie Johnson was not that happy with three straight qualifying rain-outs, even though they put him on the pole and gave him a choice of pit stalls three weeks in row. Johnson said that the cancellations put all the Chase contenders in the top 12 to start the race - higher than some of them would have normally qualified. His point was proven this week in Texas, where Kyle Busch qualified 29th, for example, and Jeff Burton (+3550), 38th.

The drivers who DNQ'd are Tony Raines, Bryan Clauson, Chad McCumbee, Max Papis, and Johnny Sauter.