Daytona 500 Race Preview

Daytona International Speedway -- 02/17/08

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Tuesday Feb 12 2008 2:32am

Will Historic Daytona 500 Race Live Up to Historic Daytona 500 Hype?

If you've been living on Pluto for the past few months, you might not have heard that this Sunday will be the 50th anniversary running of the Daytona 500.

The first Daytona 500 in what was then known as NASCAR's Grand National series was held on February 22, 1959. It was won by Lee Petty in a 1959 Oldsmobile, in a photo finish over runner-up Johnny Beauchamp.

Chances are you haven't been living on Pluto, however, so you've already been hearing the hype leading up to this year's running of the Great American Race. While the quality of the racing is yet to be determined, the event in its entirety is guaranteed to be a spectacle of mammoth proportions. Richard Petty is the Honorary Starter. Junior Johnson is driving the pace car. 24 past Daytona 500 champions are serving as Grand Marshals. Brooks and Dunn are headlining the pre-race show. The flyover will be performed by none other than the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds. The purse is at an all-time record high. Even the identity of the National Anthem performer is being kept secret. And there is wall-to-wall coverage of Speedweeks on TV.

Oh, and there's also a race.

Last year's Daytona 500 featured one of the closest finishes in history, as Kevin Harvick edged out Mark Martin in a green-white-checkered finish by 0.02 seconds. Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch, last year's lap leaders, were running 1-2 with fewer than 50 laps to go when Busch got into Stewart's rear and sent both cars into the turn 4 wall.

The racing is not always scintillating at Daytona, however, with lots of tedious single file plate-racing laps broken up by the big multi-car crashes, until the late phases of the race when the drivers who've survived the attrition start to get up on the wheel.

What the racing will be like this year is anybody's guess, as NASCAR's Car of Tomorrow/Today runs the 500 for the first time. Though it appeared fairly racey in the Bud Shootout Saturday night, drivers have expressed concerns about how much the car bounces and slides around, particularly while the sun is still out. There has also been talk this week about possible tire wear issues and a hint of a problem with the Toyota motors as well. Drivers may race conservatively for much of the event until they see how these concerns play out.

Chevy has been the dominant manufacturer at Daytona for years now, particularly in the 500, but also the Pepsi 400 in July. Eight of the last ten Daytona 500 winners have driven Chevy's - the only exceptions being Dale Jarrett in 2000 in a Ford, and Ward Burton in 2002 in a Dodge. During that same ten-year period, Jeff Gordon (+420) and Michael Waltrip (+1300) each won the race twice. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+385), Jimmie Johnson (+420) and last year's winner Kevin Harvick (+1150) each posted one Daytona 500 win.

Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett have won the 500 three times each in total, while Gordon also has three Pepsi 400 wins for a total of six Cup victories at Daytona, the most of any active driver. Johnson, however, leads all drivers in the average finish category among contenders with five or more DIS starts. The '06 Daytona 500 winner has an average finish of 12.0 in 12 races with a win, five top 5s, and eight top 10s. Last year, Johnson was involved in a wreck and finished the race 39th, though he will be starting from the pole this year. Dale Jarrett was the last driver to win the Daytona 500 from the pole in 2000. Gordon is second in the average finish category at 13.9, with Earnhardt Jr. third at 14.2.

Another driver appealing to the oddsmakers in the early going is Tony Stewart, currently +650. The Daytona 500 is one of the jewels still missing from Stewart's crown, and he wants to win it badly, especially after the crash that took him out of contention last year. Stewart had back-to-back wins in the Pepsi 400 at DIS in 2005 and 2006, though he finished 43rd and 38th in last year's two Daytona races. Overall, Stewart has nine top 10s in 18 Daytona Speedway starts. Of course, his previous statistics were all in GM cars, while this year is his first racing for Toyota. Stewart ran well in the Bud Shootout, finishing third, but expressed disappointment in his Toyota's power during Sunday's qualifying session.

Those looking for a long shot pick for the Daytona 500 might consider Clint Bowyer, currently at +2200, in a Richard Childress Chevy. Though he's made only four starts at DIS, he finished sixth in his very first Daytona 500 in 2006 and has three top 10s overall, his worst run an 18th in last year's 500. Bowyer led 55 laps in last summer's Pepsi 400, finishing seventh.

Last year's Daytona 500 winner Kevin Harvick has typically run well at DIS, with three top 5s and five top 10s in 13 starts and an average finish of 16.4. Harvick won the 500 last year from a 34th-place starting spot, the farthest back of any Daytona 500 winner. Kevin finished fourth in the Daytona 500 in 2003 and 2004.

Jamie McMurray (+2200), Jeff Burton (+2200), and Greg Biffle (+3500), each have one win at DIS in the Pepsi 400.

Lastly, here's an interesting stat: Among drivers with 20 or fewer starts at DIS, Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are tied for the most top 10s with 9 a piece (Stewart in 18 starts, Earnhardt in 16), while Jimmie Johnson has 8 top 10s in just 12 starts. Three others have six top 10s each: Matt Kenseth (+1550), Kurt Busch (+1200), and Elliott Sadler (+1300).

Though the front row of Jimmie Johnson and Michael Waltrip is firm following Sunday's qualifying session, the remainder of the starting grid will not be set until Thursday's Dual 150s - including which of the go-or-go-home cars (drivers outside the top 35 in owner's points who need to time in to the race), will make the field.