Checker O`Reilly Auto Parts 500 presented by Pennzoil Qualifying Update

Phoenix International Raceway -- 11/09/08

Author: Becca Gladden

Published: Saturday Nov 8 2008 8:42pm

It's always interesting when the top four drivers in qualifying represent one from each manufacturer.

Such is the case at Phoenix International Raceway this weekend, where the top four qualifiers Friday were Jimmie Johnson (+285) in a Chevy, Jamie McMurray in a Ford, Kurt Busch (+2000) in a Dodge, and David Reutimann in a Toyota.

Rounding out positions 5-10 on the starting grid are Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+1350), Ryan Newman (+4000), Jeff Gordon (+1250), Denny Hamlin (+650), Paul Menard, and Mark Martin (+1650).

Of course, at this point in the season with just two races left to decide the championship, fans are primarily interested in the starting positions of the Chase contenders. Below is a list of the 12 Chasers in order of their qualifying positions (current ranking in parentheses):

1st - Jimmie Johnson (1)
5th - Dale Earnhardt Jr. (11)
7th - Jeff Gordon (5)
8th - Denny Hamlin (12)
14th - Kyle Busch (10)
16th - Carl Edwards (2)
19th - Kevin Harvick (7)
24th - Jeff Burton (4)
28th - Clint Bowyer (6)
29th - Tony Stewart (8)
31st - Greg Biffle (3)
34th - Matt Kenseth (9)

In 24 Cup races at PIR, the deepest starting spot to win a race was 29th back in 1995 (Ricky Rudd), which is surely not welcome news for Greg Biffle (+2550), starting 31st. Biffle still has an outside chance of pulling off an upset for the championship, but he'd need a big day Sunday to have a shot at Johnson at Homestead.

At the same time, only 1 of 24 Phoenix races has been won from the pole, which might be welcome news for Johnson's competition. That winner was Jeff Gordon in the spring of 2007.

Still, you can't overlook the fact that Johnson is the reigning two-time winner at PIR and is heavily favored by oddsmakers for the win on Sunday - though his 15th-place finish at Texas last week remains a bit mystifying.

Overall, one-third of the races here have been won from a top-5 starting spot and just over 45% from the top 10 - which means the winner could come from just about anywhere in the field, as more than half of the races have been won from outside the top 10.

Perhaps surprisingly, Ford has the most wins among manufacturers (12 of 24 races), though GM has dominated over the past five years.

In terms of practice, there have been a few minor brushes with the wall, most notably involving Kyle Busch (+850) and Greg Biffle, though nothing serious enough to warrant going to a backup.

Friday's pre-qualifying practice session was paced by Jimmie Johnson, with Chasers Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kyle Busch also in the top 5.

Kevin Harvick (+1000) was fastest in the Saturday morning practice and Denny Hamlin paced Happy Hour.

Of note, Harvick won the Craftsman Truck Series race Friday, while Carl Edwards (+500) won the Nationwide race Saturday.

Only one driver ran in the top 10 in all three practice sessions - Ryan Newman, who also qualified 6th.

Following on Hamlin's heels in Happy Hour were Mark Martin, Kasey Kahne (+2500), Jeff Burton (+2250) and Tony Stewart (+1550). Carl Edwards was 12th fastest, Jimmie Johnson,16th, and Greg Biffle, 27th.

Track position will be key at Phoenix on Sunday and, with passing at a premium, most of the passing will take place on pit road. Drivers will need to be patient with the glaring sunlight as they head down the frontstretch unless high clouds move in, which is a possibility. The temperatures are supposed to be cooler Sunday than they have been so far this weekend.

Lap traffic is also a persistent problem here, putting an even greater premium on patience. Look for beatin' and bangin' both on the track and on pit road.

Fuel mileage may come into play as it did here in the spring. Some teams were preparing for this possibility in practice, most notably the 24 team.